UN-backed report: 1.1 billion people fear losing land or homes within five years

New FAO/ILC/CIRAD survey finds that land tenure insecurity has become a structural risk for food security, climate adaptation, and social stability.

What happened

A new global survey backed by the UN has brought a figure that changes the scale of the debate: more than 1.1 billion people say they could lose their land or homes within the next five years. The study, produced by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), the International Land Coalition (ILC), and CIRAD (French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development), shows that land tenure insecurity is not just a bureaucratic issue. It directly affects agricultural productivity, long-term investments, climate resilience, and global food security.

The data helps to size up the problem: only about 35% of land tenure and use rights worldwide are formally documented. The rest operate under informal or customary regimes, which often lack legal recognition. On agricultural land, the concentration is even more striking — the top 10% of landholders operate nearly 90% of the cultivated area.

There is also a persistent pattern of inequality: in virtually every country, women have less access to secure land and housing rights. Indigenous peoples and communities living under customary regimes manage areas critical for biodiversity and carbon sequestration, but still face insufficient formal recognition in many territories.

Why it matters

Land tenure insecurity is no longer a peripheral issue. It is now recognized as a structural risk to development, with direct implications for food security, climate adaptation, and social stability. Without solid legal guarantees and inclusive governance, even well-intentioned environmental policies — such as reforestation programs or payments for ecosystem services — can generate local conflicts and forced displacement.

Climate adaptation and environmental protection depend on long-term decisions about land use. When people lack security over where they live or farm, they become less likely to invest in sustainable practices, such as soil conservation, agroforestry systems, or spring protection. The report signals that strengthening land governance is as essential an infrastructure as roads or energy for sustainable development.

What to watch next

The study arrives at a time when pressure on land for food production, renewable energy, and environmental conservation is growing. Policies on land regularization, recognition of customary rights, and gender equality in land access are expected to gain more space on national and international agendas. Organizations such as the FAO and ILC already point out that the goal of eradicating hunger and reducing carbon emissions necessarily involves ensuring that 1.1 billion people do not lose their homes and livelihoods.

Sources

• UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1167037
• Full report (FAO/ILC/CIRAD): https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/10293134-009e-416b-876b-84158530c89d